Friday marks one month until the 2024 Iowa caucuses, the official start to the Republican presidential nominating process. But the primary has been carrying on unofficially for nearly a year now — and in some ways, it is basically already over.
According to 538's average of national polls, as of Dec. 15, former President Donald Trump leads the primary race with 61 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are essentially tied for second at 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
Trump also leads by at least 25 percentage points in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And when you consider Trump's wide lead alongside how little time remains until voting actually begins, he now looks almost inevitable. Unless a historically unforeseen event happens, Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be his party's nominee next year.
